Relative age effect and development pathways in French basketball: from youth training structures to senior national teams

The relative age effect refers to the advantage experienced by athletes born earlier in the selection year and has been widely documented in youth basketball. However, its influence on long-term development pathways leading to senior elite performance remains insufficiently understood. The aim of this study was to examine the distribution of birth quarters across elite basketball development structures in France and to analyze how relative age relates to progression toward senior national team selection in male and female players. Birth quarter distributions were analyzed for players involved in regional training centers (females = 2,399; males = 2,572), national training centers (females = 157; males = 216), professional club academies (females = 1,981; males = 3,103), and French national teams from youth to senior level (female = 896; male = 803). These distributions were compared with national birth statistics using chi-square (χ2) tests. In addition, developmental pathways to senior national teams were reconstructed using prospective and retrospective approaches in order to describe patterns of progression across the talent development system. The results showed a strong overrepresentation of players born early in the selection year at the initial stages of elite development for both males and females (p < 0.001). The magnitude of this imbalance appeared attenuated at senior international level, where no significant relative age effect was observed (p > 0.05). Despite substantial attrition across development stages, distinct progression patterns were observed between male and female players, highlighting differences in how athletes access and move through elite pathways. These findings indicate that relative age strongly influences early selection in elite basketball but does not determine long-term access to senior international performance.